Iran’s Nuclear Not Reached a Result; Oil Price Fluctuations are Expected to Widen

The dollar index was little changed on Monday as investors turned their attention to the Fed’s policy decision to be announced on Wednesday, which could give clues as to when the Fed will cut back on asset purchases. Spot gold closed down more than $10, falling as much as 1.7 per cent at one point in intraday trading, with some investors worried that the fed might outline ways to scale back its expansionary monetary policy at this week’s two-day meeting. Oil prices fell from more than two-year highs as the UK extended epidemic restrictions, dampening optimistic expectations of a strong recovery in western demand in the summer.

During the Asian session on June 15, US crude oil hovered at 70.99 US dollars per barrel. Oil prices closed basically flat on Monday. Earlier in the day, they hit a high of more than two years. The increase in crude oil production in the United States and the delay in restart in the United Kingdom have lowered expectations for fuel demand growth and supply tightening. In addition, technical indicators show that oil prices are in an overbought area and may fall back. Oil prices are not concerned about the progress of Iran’s nuclear negotiations in the short term. Focus on nightly US economic data.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said at a news conference on Monday that Iran and world powers reached an agreement to lift industrial sanctions, including energy, but did not explicitly mention oil. In fact, the United States said last week that it would maintain hundreds of sanctions against Iran outside the agreement even if the Iran nuclear deal was agreed, which was the biggest obstacle to the conclusion of the sixth round of talks. It is worth noting that the new Israeli government was sworn in on the evening of the 13th, and the new Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said that he would ensure Israel’s national security and would not allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons.

In view of the complication of the situation in the Middle East and the presidential election in Iran on June 18, the Iranian nuclear talks are not expected to reach a final result in this round of talks. It is important to note, however, that global demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022, faster than previously expected, according to the IEA’s monthly (IEA) report released on Friday. IEA urged the OPEC+ alliance of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) and its allies to increase production to meet demand. As negotiations to restart the Iran nuclear deal continue, Iranian crude oil production is likely to rise to about 3.15 million b / d by the end of 2021, compared with the current average of 660000 b / d. This means that unless there is a larger recovery in crude oil demand in the future, a sharp increase in oil supply is expected to put pressure on oil prices once the demand recovery stagnates.

Motor vehicle traffic in much of North America and Europe is returning to pre-pandemic levels, and the number of flights has increased as blockades and other restrictions have been relaxed. However, late Monday, British Prime Minister Johnson announced that the release of epidemic control in England would be delayed by a month, from June 21 to July 19.

Looking ahead, oil prices are expected to fluctuate further this week, but given that the Fed’s interest rate resolution and Iran’s nuclear talks do not seem to shake the main logic of rising oil prices in the short term, oil prices are expected to remain generally high and investors can focus on support around $70 in WTI crude.

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