Daily Outlook: The growth rate of the US manufacturing industry slowed down in July
The growth rate of the US manufacturing industry slowed down in July, and supply bottlenecks continued to pose constraints:
The growth rate of the US manufacturing industry slowed down in July, as supply bottlenecks and shortages of raw materials continued to restrict producers. However, the growth rate is still at a steady level. Data released on Monday showed that the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index fell for the second consecutive month, from 60.6 in June to 59.5. The index higher than 50 represents activity expansion. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimate that the median value is 61.
Fed Governor Waller: If employment data remains strong, it will support the announcement of a reduction in September:
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that if US data in the next two months show continued employment growth, he may support an early announcement to reduce the scale of debt purchases. “I think you have to possibly prepare for the September announcement,” Waller said in an interview with CNBC on Monday. “It depends on the performance of the next two employment reports. If it is as strong as the last time, then I think the job market has made the progress needed to reduce the size. If the data is not as strong as before, then it may have to wait two or three months. .”
The Bank of Australia is facing an awkward situation and may need to change its timing and yield targets:
Philip Lowe, the governor of the Bank of Australia, who just announced that he would be underweight a month ago, may face the awkward situation of having to postpone his plan. The return of the new crown epidemic has left global central banks still confused about the economic outlook. According to an overwhelming majority of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg last week, Lowe expects to postpone its plan to reduce the size of weekly bond purchases until later this year, while maintaining the cash interest rate at 0.1%. Two of the economists’ expectations went further. The Bank of Australia is expected to transfer the bonds anchored by the 3-year yield target to the national debt maturing in November 2024.
The U.S. Treasury Department began to take additional measures to avoid exceeding the debt ceiling:
With the debt ceiling restored on Sunday after a two-year suspension, the US Treasury Department has begun to take additional special measures to prevent the country from defaulting. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen unanimously wrote to Congress Zhou that the Treasury Department is suspending new investments in several federal employee retirement and welfare funds. Yellen wrote that previous finance ministers had taken similar actions when they encountered the debt ceiling. Unless Congress raises or suspends the debt ceiling again, the United States may default as early as October.
The U.S. Treasury Department will reduce the scale of bond issuance. Traders believe that it is enough to offset the impact of the Fed’s underweight:
For the first time in more than five years, the US Treasury Department will reduce its quarterly bond issuance in the coming months. Wall Street traders said that the drop was so large that it would be enough to offset the impact of the Fed’s impending cut. The US Treasury Department will announce the quarterly refinancing arrangements for long-term bonds on Wednesday, and will usually list any adjustments to the debt issuance strategy at that time. Although most traders expect no change in the size of the refinancing of US$126 billion in the near future, many expect officials to prepare for the scale reduction that will begin in November.
The International Monetary Fund finally approved an asset injection of 650 billion U.S. dollars:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved the largest capital injection in its history, with a scale of US$650 billion, which will be used to help countries deal with the impact of the new crown epidemic.
