Daily Outlook: Producer prices soared in the United States in June, and companies are facing increasing pressure to pass on costs
The Fed stated that the pace of economic recovery is accelerating, and labor shortages and price pressures continue:
The Federal Reserve stated that the pace of US economic recovery has accelerated in the past two months, but the economic reopening has put increasing pressure on companies to recruit and complete orders. “The U.S. economy further strengthened from late May to early July, showing a moderate to strong growth trend,” the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book survey report released on Wednesday. “Supply-side disturbances have become more common, including raw materials and labor. Shortages, delayed deliveries and low inventories of many consumer products.”
Biden has no intention to restart the U.S.-China Strategic Economic Dialogue. The 12-year high-level communication channel between Beijing and Washington is temporarily difficult to recover:
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and his subordinates have no plans to restart the regular economic dialogue that dominated US-China relations during the Bush and Obama administrations, and continue to press the pause button pressed by Donald Trump. According to people familiar with the matter, although Yellen and other departments’ teams maintain contact with their Chinese counterparts, the current expectation is not to restart formal high-level bilateral talks. A spokesperson for the US Treasury Department declined to comment.
Producer prices soared in the United States in June, and companies are facing increasing pressure to pass on costs:
The rise in the US producer price index in June exceeded expectations, indicating that companies are under increasing pressure to pass on rising costs to consumers. According to data released by the US Department of Labor on Wednesday, the PPI for final demand in June increased by 1% month-on-month and 7.3% year-on-year. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the core PPI also rose by 1% month-on-month, setting a record high and rising by 5.6% year-on-year. Due to rising commodity prices and disruption to the global supply chain, the PPI, which tracks changes in production costs, has risen faster than expected in recent months. Companies’ challenges in hiring skilled workers have also put upward pressure on wages.
The UAE confirmed that it had a dialogue with Saudi Arabia, but said it has not yet reached an output agreement with OPEC+:
The UAE has made significant progress in resolving the deadlock with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)+ and is negotiating a compromise agreement that may allow the country to increase oil production next year. Delegates who are familiar with the discussion stated that the negotiations involving the UAE and Saudi Arabia are still going on, and if any agreement is reached, it will require the support of other OPEC+ countries.
European Central Bank official Schnabel: The European Central Bank may achieve its inflation target sooner than some people expected:
Isabel Schnabel, a member of the European Central Bank’s Executive Committee, hinted that the euro zone inflation rate may be closer to reaching the target level than some people expected. At the same time, she believes that it will take time to ensure that price movements are consolidated before the European Central Bank Management Committee tightens monetary policy.
The Bank of Canada raised its economic growth and inflation expectations, predicting that the output gap will disappear in the second half of 2022:
Due to rising optimism about the economic recovery, the Bank of Canada raised its expectations for economic output and inflation, but continues to expect that the idle economic capacity will not be fully digested until the second half of next year. Central bank policymakers headed by Governor Tiff Macklem announced new economic forecasts on Wednesday. They believe that after the economic start to 2021 is weaker than expected, it will rebound strongly in the second half of this year. This is mainly due to the rise in employment levels and the start of spending by households. Cash accumulated in the past year.
Inflation in the UK exceeded expectations, setting the biggest increase since 2018:
The British Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen more than expected for the second consecutive month. The Bank of England believes that the inflation spike is temporary or challenged. The Office of National Statistics (ONS) issued a report on Wednesday that the CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year in June, the largest increase since August 2018. The Bloomberg survey estimates that the median is 2.2%. The rapid rise of CPI has raised market expectations that the Bank of England will be forced to raise interest rates as soon as next year.
Iran’s enriched uranium stocks have nearly tripled, and the new president Raisi will take over nuclear negotiations:
Iran’s leaders admitted that the current government could not ensure a nuclear agreement with the world’s major powers in the last few weeks of their tenure. They also hinted that Iran is violating uranium enrichment regulations that are critical to the development of nuclear weapons. The outgoing Iranian President Rouhani said at a cabinet meeting on Wednesday that President-elect Ebrahim Raisi will have to end negotiations aimed at resuming the 2015 nuclear agreement.
