During the Asian session on Monday (August 2), US crude oil hovered around 73.68. Oil prices rose slightly last Friday. The global index Brent crude oil futures recorded an increase for the fourth consecutive month, as demand grew faster than supply. Although the number of infections of the delta virus variant has surged in recent weeks, travel and other data indicate strong demand in the major economies that traders are concerned about. After India relaxed its epidemic prevention restrictions, driving activities increased significantly. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that global oil demand is increasing and consumption is increasing. Of course, the new crown virus still exists, but there are no lockdown measures like before. Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth, said that all the current data are very positive, and this is what you are seeing. We are indeed in tight supply now, so it is really difficult for this commodity to fall back.
An investigation found that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) July oil production rose to the highest since April 2020, because the organization further reduced its production cuts in accordance with the agreement with its allies, and the largest exporter Saudi Arabia gradually cancelled voluntary production cuts. This also put pressure on oil prices. As part of the OPEC+ production increase, Saudi Arabia lifted its voluntary production cuts and further increased production. Saudi Arabia achieved the largest increase in output by OPEC member states by 460,000 barrels per day in July. The increase in output was followed by the UAE with 40,000 barrels per day, Kuwait and Nigeria both at 30,000 barrels per day, and OPEC’s second largest oil producer, Iraq, increased production by 20,000 barrels per day.
The monthly report released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Friday showed that US crude oil production increased by 80,000 barrels per day to 11.231 million barrels per day in May, and EIA revised its April production estimate to 11.151 million barrels per day. Crude oil production increased year-on-year, but it has not yet recovered to the high of over 12.8 million barrels per day before the pandemic. The global price war, coupled with the reduced demand caused by the epidemic, will drag down a sharp drop in U.S. oil production in 2020.
The report shows that US gasoline demand in May was 9.137 million barrels per day, higher than the 8.791 million barrels per day in April. Consumption of distillate oil, including diesel, was 3.874 million barrels per day, down from 3.988 million barrels per day in April. Although gasoline demand has rebounded from the sluggish state during the COVID-19 pandemic as travel restrictions are relaxed, demand levels in May are still lower than in the same period in 2019. In addition, data from energy services company Baker Hughes shows that the number of active drilling rigs in the United States has increased for 11 consecutive months, but this week it has decreased by two to 385.
This week (August 1st-August 8th), the market ushered in the European Central Bank’s Economic Bulletin, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate resolution, the Bank of England will also announce interest rate resolutions, and China’s trade account data will be released that needs attention. .
①On Monday, China’s July Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US July ISM Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone July Markit Manufacturing PMI Final Value, and the 54th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting were held
②On Tuesday, Japan’s July Tokyo CPI annual rate, the US June durable goods order monthly rate final value, the US June factory order monthly rate, and the Reserve Bank of Australia announced interest rate resolutions.
③On Wednesday, New Zealand’s second quarter unemployment rate, China’s July Caixin service industry PMI, the UK’s July Markit service industry PMI final value, and the United States’ July ADP employment.
④On Thursday, Australia’s June trade account for goods and services, the US June trade account, and the Bank of England announced interest rate resolutions.
⑤Friday, the French trade account in June, the unemployment rate in Canada in July, the non-agricultural employment data in the United States in July, and the monthly rate of wholesale inventory in the United States in June. The Reserve Bank of Australia issued a monetary policy statement, and Broadbent, the deputy governor of the Bank of England, hosted an online briefing for businesses.
⑥On Saturday, China’s July trade account and China’s July foreign exchange reserves.