Bank of America: Oil prices may reach $100 this winter and trigger an economic crisis

Biden: The infrastructure bill can wait. The scale of the spending bill may be lowered:

US President Joe Biden adjusted the Democrats’ expectations for his economic bill on Friday, telling lawmakers that the tax and spending package would be smaller, excluding the possibility that the bipartisan infrastructure bill would soon be passed. In a closed-door meeting with Democrats in the House of Representatives, Biden said that the $550 billion new infrastructure bill passed by the Senate may still have to wait. Biden agreed to link the infrastructure bill with the comprehensive expansion of social projects and climate change, which was a victory for the progressives in the party. In addition, Biden also expressed support for the moderates, agreeing to reduce the size of the package from 3.5 trillion US dollars.

Fitch: If Congress does not raise the debt ceiling, the US AAA rating will be at risk:

Fitch Ratings said that if Congress fails to raise the federal debt ceiling and delays in payments by the Treasury Department, the US AAA rating may not be guaranteed. Fitch said on Friday that even for securities other than Treasury bonds, if the Treasury Department delays payment or defaults, the US’s AAA status may also be threatened. This is reminiscent of the U.S. debt ceiling deadlock in 2011, when Standard & Poor’s downgraded the U.S. rating from AAA, which once triggered turmoil in global financial markets.

The PCE inflation rate in the United States in August reached the highest since 1991, and personal spending grew strongly:

The growth rate of personal spending in the United States in August was higher than expected, driven by commodity purchases. At the same time, a closely watched inflation indicator exceeded market expectations. Data released by the Ministry of Commerce on Friday showed that personal purchases of goods and services increased by 0.8% month-on-month, and fell by 0.1% after the revision in July. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index-the indicator used by the Fed to assess its inflation target-rose 0.4% month-on-month and 4.3% year-on-year. This is the biggest increase since 1991.

US consumer confidence rose slightly at the end of September, still close to the low point since the outbreak:

The US consumer confidence index rose slightly at the end of September, but it was still close to the low point since the outbreak, and Americans’ optimism about the economic situation has slightly increased. Data released on Friday showed that the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index rose to 72.8 from an initial value of 71. Richard Curtin, who is in charge of the investigation, said in a statement, “Consumer confidence rose slightly at the end of September, but overall optimism was still suppressed, initially affected by the spread of the delta strain, and later due to the soaring inflation rate and poor long-term economic prospects. “.

Bank of America: Oil prices may reach $100 this winter and trigger an economic crisis:

Bank of America said that the global energy crisis may help oil prices exceed $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014, and trigger a global economic crisis. The oil equivalent price of natural gas has almost doubled, and the Bank of America said the surge in diesel demand may push crude oil to a similar level. The Bank of America said in a report on Friday that, given that monetary and fiscal policies are approaching their limits and the proportion of energy costs in economic output has risen, rising oil prices may trigger a macro crisis.

The British government has made major moves to resolve the “driver shortage”.

The British government offered its most drastic intervention to resolve the crisis that has plagued the country, ordering the Army to start delivering fuel to gas stations around the country on Monday. The authorities issued a statement on Friday night stating that nearly 200 military personnel, including 100 drivers, will be deployed to transport fuel. London has also launched a plan to allow up to 300 foreign tanker truck drivers to enter the country by the end of March. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is planning to appease followers at the Conservative Party’s annual convention, saying that the government has taken control of the situation.

OPEC increased production again last month and will evaluate the follow-up production plan next week:

To keep up with the pace of oil demand growth, OPEC restored more idle capacity last month. According to a Bloomberg survey, OPEC crude oil production increased by 360,000 barrels per day to 27.49 million barrels. OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, will meet next Monday to evaluate plans to increase production next month. Due to the tightening of global energy supply, crude oil prices are currently close to US$80 per barrel. Some key industry data show that OPEC needs to open the valve for increasing production more quickly.



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